Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring

Football match action
Wolves recorded 10 fewer scores from open play than at this stage the previous campaign.

A major talking point of the Premier League this campaign concerns the reduction of scoring in open play and how teams are finding goals more from set-plays instead.

Looking at how goals have been scored to the first 11 games last season, we note 39 fewer goals in open play and 26 more from set-plays and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 less overall.

Examining overall statistics, efforts on goal clubs are making have seen a remarkable drop of 370 in open play than this time previously.

And despite the big increase in set-piece goals, we've actually seen just two more shots produced from these situations outside of spot-kicks, demonstrating the proficiency sides have been at finding ways to score from set-pieces.

Goal Statistics Show a Story

301 total goals scored in the first 110 fixtures so far averages out at 2.74 goals per fixture, if maintained for all 38 games would be the lowest for five years, back in 2020-21 (2.69).

However, only 196 goals scored in open-play equates to 1.78 per fixture and is tracking to be the least for since 2009-10, since 2009-10 (1.76 average).

That campaign also marks the sole English top-flight season to see goals scored more often from dead-balls without spot-kicks than the current rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 average).

Which Sides Bear the Most Responsibility?

When it comes to scoring from open-play, Wolves have experienced the largest decline, registering a mere four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 less than at this stage last season.

Outside of Wolverhampton, England's top division's drop in goals from open play is largely a London thing, with five out of the capital's seven sides scoring a minimum of five less scores from open-play than the previous year.

Honestly, that's largely down to their scoring lots of goals at the start of the previous campaign instead of them having difficulty to find the net in open-play this campaign.

Conversely Man City have recorded the biggest increase, with almost every one of the 23 they've scored to date coming in open play.

Set-Piece Success

Looking at clubs that came up with those that were relegated they took the place of. Sunderland Sunderland have scored three extra goals in open-play than the Saints managed in matchday 11 on their way to the drop the previous campaign.

In terms of goals scored from set-pieces (aside from spot-kicks), the Gunners and the Blues have seen the most significant jump, with each team making up for the five less goals that they've netted in open-play with the same number from dead-ball chances.

Man United have scored two times more scores from set-pieces as they achieved in matchday 11 last season before their coach took over, while the Black Cats once more prove more successful at converting than the similar-colored team they replaced.

Manchester City appear not to have received the trend about increasing scoring from set-plays, because they've scored three less than the previous campaign, like the Reds, even if that might be down to the change in style they're working to install.

Overall Patterns

Six sides – the Gunners, the Blues, the Cottagers, Newcastle, Tottenham and the Hammers – are this season's leading trend-followers by scoring fewer scores from open-play and increased from set-pieces, while Manchester City are the only side to defy the pattern to date by doing the contrary.

It remains to be seen to watch if clubs continue to rely so heavily on set-plays as the campaign progresses or if they regain their general attacking flair and commence converting additional scores in open play too.

Ryan Peters
Ryan Peters

A seasoned gaming analyst with over a decade of experience in online casino strategies and player psychology.