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At first, the former US president appeared to take a strong stance concerning Ukraine. After issuing warnings of "severe ramifications" last August should Putin carried on hindering peace discussions, the former president finally introduced substantial penalties on the Russian primary petroleum corporations, these major energy companies. This action substantially affected Putin's capacity to fund his military invasion in the region.

Yet, via his latest detailed peace proposal for the conflict, that was drafted by both nations' officials without Ukraine's or EU participation, he has clearly returned to his pro-Putin approach.

Benefiting Aggression

This proposal would effectively favor Putin for invading a sovereign nation while placing the country's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite bold statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be upheld", much of the initiative actually compromise that same sovereignty. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his real-estate past, the former president continues to treat the war as a mere territorial dispute, as if ceding Russia a part of Ukraine's territory will please the leader. But, Russia's military campaign is not only about occupying a destroyed area of industrial-devastated territory in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent desire to weaken it so it ceases to acts as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the democratic government that his increasing dictatorship prevents them.

Border Surrenders

While maintaining in position the already separated regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the initiative would compel the nation to surrender all of Donetsk province. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with land that its military have been failed to capture in over a lengthy period of conflict, this surrender would render Ukrainian military defenses dangerously weakened.

The area is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the entrenched protective structures that are a key obstacle to invading forces. Trump would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, providing Putin a unobstructed path to Kyiv should he later decide to restart the war.

Military Reductions

Then, in a step that would make future fighting easier for Russia, Trump would require the nation to reduce the numbers of its armed forces from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 personnel to a limit of 600,000. Importantly, the plan places no similar limits on Russia's military.

Apparently as a concession to Russia's efforts to characterize the nation's legitimate administration as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "Any radical ideology and actions must be condemned and forbidden." Apparently to emphasize this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold democratic votes in three months" of a truce. However, the proposal places no requirement that the Russian leader endanger his regime by holding votes in Russia.

Protection Commitments

To be sure, the proposal includes Russia pledge not to "attack other states" and to "enshrine in law its stance of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". But given that Putin has violated equivalent treaties in the past – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to respect the nation's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a handback of occupied land in the region to the government – how should anyone have confidence in Putin on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on external security guarantees. Although the initiative promises a "strong coordinated defense action" if the Russian Federation resume its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable protection assurances", the particulars range from unclear to troubling. The proposal would not just prevent Ukraine accession to NATO but also prevent member states from stationing troops on Ukraine's soil, thus precluding the peacekeeping contingent, presumptively led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to deter Putin from restoring his weakened troops, re-equipping, and attacking again.

Global Concern

Another supplementary accord apparently would provide the nation with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any subsequent "serious, planned, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an assault jeopardizing the peace and security of the transatlantic community." That suggests a defense action. But different from a strong Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable protection against future hostilities – the credibility of the supplementary deal would depend on the commitment of alliance members, such as the US administration, to react through arms to Putin's hostilities, an action they have {not