Everyday Homicides in Mexico Fall Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Statistics

The typical number of daily homicides each month in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by new official statistics. Nevertheless, public safety experts have advised that murder figures may not point to better countrywide safety.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 killings a day in November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President assumed the presidency in September. This announcement was delivered by the director of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we’ve had during these past months is remarkably notable,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that in November the smallest figure of homicides were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Intense cartel rivalries, combined with the government’s highly military operations to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than that of the United States. However, murders have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has linked her national security plan for an apparently more pronounced drop in killings this year.

At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader declared: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and we have specific tracking town by town in certain cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s security plan involve:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced coordination between various authorities.

Analyst Caution and Data Limitations

However, security researchers urged caution that focusing solely on homicide numbers to assess the situation of improved security was misleading. This is especially true given the uptick in other crimes such as people going missing.

“That would be positive news if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just focus on the murder numbers and say: ‘Oh well, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical period last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not reliable for assessing the context of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the inclination to accurately identify and classify corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was also concerning because it may hide days when there were especially high numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily mean renders surges of violence invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can point to the success of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Almost 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, per government data. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s highly politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Public Anger

However despite these actions, Mexico remains grappling with extreme bloodshed, with a number of regions in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and across the country to voice their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government frames [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s highly debatable,” the analyst remarked.